In absence of detailed benefit sharing plans between regional states, politicians fear that proper compensation will not be paid Alam, ; Mustafa,et al. Following mass protests and strong opposition from Sindh, the project was suspended in However, planning re-opened in and the project currently awaits assessment from the Ministry of Water Resources Kiani, Concerns over the potential negative impacts of the dam have led to renewed protests in Sindh Dawn, Punjab officials as well as the national government often present the dam as a way to benefit the national economy as a whole — even though it was first proposed as a measure to address water and energy supply gaps in Punjab.
The dam has been defended as a necessary means of supplying water for agriculture in the context of Pakistan's shrinking reserves Rizvi, ; Tribune News Desk, In addition, the Kalabagh dam, and more broadly hydropower, is seen by proponents as a climate-friendly method to provide Pakistan with renewable energy.
Being located downstream, Sindh claims that the Kalabagh Dam would strip them of their rights to water and decimate downstream water access and quality for farmers and urban centres. On the upstream side, objections from KP stem from the fear of losing rich farmlands to submergence and possible saltwater intrusion into groundwater Mustafa et al.
Even within Punjab, construction is also opposed due to its likely impact on communities on the planned construction site. Punjabi citizens of the Mianwali district near the planned dam argue that the benefits of the dam will be unevenly distributed Niazi, The dam has been presented more recently as a strategy to adapt to climate change while increasing economic growth and meeting energy demand through hydropower generation.
However, the potential benefits of the dam could be undermined by the effects of climate change on the Indus basin which include, among others, the retreat of the Himalayan Glaciers that is expected to reduce long-term water availability Jayaram, , and flood risks brought about by increasingly erratic rainfall patterns during the monsoon seasons Stolbova et al.
Consequently, these impacts could multiply the effects of climate change on various regions, which add to the likelihood of conflict.
For example, irregular monsoons are likely to aggravate tensions around issues of water distribution, the timing of flow management and reduction in water availability along the Indus basin Diamond, Water conflicts in the Indus basin, particularly between the provinces of Sindh and Punjab, are a recurring phenomenon. To mitigate conflict surrounding the distribution of water from the Indus basin, the Indus River System Authority IRSA was established in to judge and regulate the distribution of water resources between provincial states.
The IRSA investigated provincial concerns over the Kalabagh dam in and asserted its feasibility. The CCI ruled in favour of the federal government's plans for the dam. The topic was then referred to parliament. Finally, as a result of heated politicisation, the Federal Minister for Water and Power postponed construction until Eurasia Review, The Lahore High Court declared the government legally obliged to build the dam in compliance with the ruling of the CCI in and plans were subsequently re-released.
After protests in Sindh, the project was dropped but reopened again four years later in The idea of the Kalabagh dam as a project to address water scarcity i. Sindhi politicians have argued that the central government did not take the water needs of Sindh into account when the Indus Waters Treaty IWT was signed in see Conflict in the Indus River basin , or in subsequent water infrastructure projects. Their claim is that it left the downstream region in a state of structural water scarcity rather than the whole nation facing absolute water scarcity.
As the IWT may need to be renegotiated, this could provide an opportunity to better align subnational concerns. However, if diplomacy between India and Pakistan breaks down, it is likely that Sindh will become more vulnerable to the upstream developments of both Punjab and India see Conflict in the Indus River basin. The Pakistani provinces signed a National Water Policy and water charter in with the objective of and providing a more comprehensive response plan of action and policy framework.
Current legal arrangements on a national level may bring difficulties as water law is not clearly defined in Pakistan. For lack of there being a national law there are numerous arrangements at the level of the province and local governance. As national policy is often deemed to favour Punjab, conflict may continue if national policies are not in line with these interprovincial arrangements.
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